Don’t Believe the Hype – Romney Ahead by 7. Debates are Next.

Grandma is a dedicated FoxNews watcher. Last Wednesday she observes that “it’s not looking good for Romney, what with the economy rebounding and the polls showing him trailing in all the swing states.”

Having spent a couple hours that afternoon on a call with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), this was puzzling given that the current status of leading economic indicators are such that the nation’s biggest lenders are forecasting 2013 to be flat at best. And as for economic activity right now, ‘purchase mortgages’, meaning those associated with the purchase of a new home, were down in volume. Overall activity in the mortgage space is increasingly around refinancing as people seek to take advantage of 3.5% interest rates which are the lowest since the MBA began tracking such things. This means the housing industry is still barely moving so how could we be rebounding?

Something’s Fishy – Data from 2010 Predicts We’re Getting Better in 2012?

But there it is – “Has the Economy Bottomed Out? US Census Suggests Yes” according to the Associated Press. Then you realize that they are talking about Census data from 2011 and realize, “wow- that is some serious propagandizing”. In sum, the Census occurred in 2010, analysis on said data gathered through the census occurred in 2011 and those results are now being used to predict that the economy is getting better. Thursday morning, Rush took the whole argument apart- if you missed it, read the transcript here.

Don’t Believe the Hype – Early Voting is Starting All over the US. This is a Discouragement Effort.

So I explain to Grandma that she shouldn’t believe the hype; this is propaganda at its finest, Team Obama and their allies in the media employing some Sun Tzu (good quotes from the Chinese sage, here). And that includes the polls. As Charlie Martin at Pajamas Media points out, “the result of Romney’s “really bad week” was that Romney had gone from 5 or 6 points behind in Gallup, to essentially tied.” (of note: Peggy Noonan’s column in the Weekend Wall Street Journal in which she calls for a leadership change over in the Romney camp was based upon this same supposed bad week).

Check Out Unskewed Polls.com. Honest Polling Shows Our Guy is Ahead.

If you’ve been listening to Rush lately, you’ve probably heard him take apart many polls repeatedly, particularly Gallup, for their obvious efforts to skew the results through oversampling of Democrats. Rasmussen seems to be the most honest and consistently the most accurate pollster; Charlie Martin’s post explains this in more detail. Enter unskewedpolls.com, which is a site that takes the polls most commonly touted by the mainstream media and re-weights them to follow Rasmussen’s methodology. The result is today, Monday 9/24, Romney is ahead by 7.

Debate Schedule

This is good news heading into the debates. Mark your calendar:

October 3, 2012
Topic: Domestic policy
Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: University of Denver in Denver, Colorado
Moderator: Jim Lehrer (Host of NewsHour on PBS)

October 11, 2012
Vice Presidential
Topic: Foreign and domestic policy
Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: Centre College in Danville, Kentucky
Moderator: Martha Raddatz (ABC News Chief Foreign Correspondent)

October 16, 2012
Topic: Town meeting format including foreign and domestic policy
Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York
Moderator: Candy Crowley (CNN Chief Political Correspondent)

October 22, 2012
Topic: Foreign policy
Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida
Moderator: Bob Schieffer (Host of Face the Nation on CBS)

Hopefully all that practicing Team Romney has been doing in Vermont pays off.

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